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In the next few paragraphs I will tell you about a simple betting system that I use for making under / over 2.5 total scored goals predictions. I am talking about a ratio of the number of goal attempts created by the teams and how many goals they succeed to score.
What do I do? First, I make an excel sheet with 4 columns for my database. After each game for each team I add the number of goal attempts created by the host and the number of realized goals. I do so for the guest, too. This is the data in my four columns.
In another part of the excel file I calculate the average of each column data. When four matches are played at home and four matches away, it is time for the estimations.
Here you may ask the question – Why do I have to wait for 8 matches to be played to start with my estimations? Simply put, because if a team is in a good form in August and September and created many situations and scored goals, it doesn’t mean that this team will perform just as well for example in December. Teams are in different form during the season, attackers and defenders get injured and that’s why I decided to consider only the last four games for each team.
How do I do my calculations? I check how many goal attempts are needed for a team to score. This is very simple. I divide the number of goal attempts to scored goals in the last four meetings. Then I estimate how many goal attempts a team will have in this match.
This calculation is done by a formula which calculates the average number of goal attempts created by a team and the average number of goal attempts allowed by the opponent. By the result I make a factor that is applied to the goal attempts created and allowed by both teams in the last four games.
Given the expected number of goal attempts and information for how many of them will be realized as goals I can have an idea of how many goals I expect to be realized in that match. I convert my expectations in odds by adding the 7% margin for the betting house and if I have gaps of more than 10 percent between my predictions and suggested by the bookmaker betting odds I bet.
Sounds pretty simple and for now works with decent success. Of course, this is a betting system that works only in the long term. It can’t be expected that it can be applied to only one match.
More about under/over betting you can see in the video below:
When talking about sports betting one of the most common questions discussed in every betting forum is if it is possible to make predictions based on past performances of the team. Can we find a relation between what has happened in the past and what is going to happen in the future? The idea is simple. If you have a match between Manchester United and Aston Villa for example, you can compare how they ended up over the last years and make enough probable assumption that things will be repeated. Thus you will be able to find a sufficiently safe bet.
Of course, everyone who knows something about betting is aware that in a single match that cannot happen at 100%. In the match for example the players of one of the teams may have a bad day. They can miss a penalty or even two and thus fail the betting prediction. However, when we talk about 100 or even 1000 matches then the miss of a penalty can’t be significant.
The simplest way to compare past matches is to simply check how many matches in the last ten seasons ended with over or under 2.5 goals. Let’s say, if 7 of 10 matches between the teams finished with more than 2.5 total scored goals and the coefficient for the same bet is 2, then we have a pretty sure bet that in this match the number of total scored goals will be at least three and thus our bet will win.
Of course, there are many more complex betting systems to assess how many goals will be scored in a match. They take into account not only the past meetings between the two teams, but also cover the latest games played in the league. This betting systems deal not only with the number of goals, but also with the goal attempts which a team created and how many of them are realized.
The idea of a betting system to make predictions for us is not bad, as it is almost impossible for a gambler to succeed in a long time counting only on his/her own strengths. The tiredness of betting or another factor will inevitably lead to accumulation of losses if you bet subjectively. This is why we need a system to help us for making the predictions. The problem with finding a working betting system is that we still haven’t found a system that can certainly provide the needed success rate.
Do you need a break or few minutes to think about what you have read in the last five minutes? Take a look on this great video below.
Today’s betting prediction will be from the championship of Bulgaria. I’m talking about the match between the teams of Botev Vratsa and Litex Lovech, which will be played tonight in Vratsa. I can safely say that both teams are in big crisis. Despite the fact that the guests have remained unbeaten so far this season and the hosts have already made three losses out of three games.
In the last 15 years the team from Lovech has been consistently among the best teams in the league, but in the beginning of this season funding problems shook the club. This affected the team too, which began with a win and two draws. The victory came against the team of CSKA, which is another club with serious problems so far. The victory came with a goal a few seconds before the end of the match.
The team of Botev Vratsa, which last year had a quite good representation in the Bulgarian A group suffered from serious financial problems especially after the change of ownership and the introduction of some previously unknown Italian businessmen as the new owners of the club. That’s why the team started badly, recording three losses in three games in the league.
Last season, both matches went to the count of Litex and the curious fact is that both ended with the result 3:1.
Generally I don’t like to support teams that are in a series of bad games, but this is what I will do in this match. As I said above, the team of Litex has funding problems. They led to the problem in the squad. Some stars have left the team and were replaced by adolescents. This inevitably weakened the team and I think it will be difficult for them to win against PFC Botev today. Not to mention to beat the proposed Asian Handicap of +2 for Botev Vratsa.
I really see that the chances for a win for the guests are serious, but this victory to be with 3 goals at least is something I don’t believe. That’s why my bet is for Botev Vratsa with Asian handicap of +2, for which the betting houses offer odds of 1.85.
On the video below you can see a Litex match from the last season:
If you are a punter who wants to share your betting knowledge and you like to discuss predictions and different betting systems you are more than welcomed.
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