A betting system for under/over total scored goals

In the next few paragraphs I will tell you about a simple betting system that I use for making under / over 2.5 total scored goals predictions. I am talking about a ratio of the number of goal attempts created by the teams and how many goals they succeed to score.

What do I do? First, I make an excel sheet with 4 columns for my database. After each game for each team I add the number of goal attempts created by the host and the number of realized goals. I do so for the guest, too. This is the data in my four columns.

In another part of the excel file I calculate the average of each column data. When four matches are played at home and four matches away, under/over bettingit is time for the estimations.

Here you may ask the question – Why do I have to wait for 8 matches to be played to start with my estimations? Simply put, because if a team is in a good form in August and September and created many situations and scored goals, it doesn’t mean that this team will perform just as well for example in December. Teams are in different form during the season, attackers and defenders get injured and that’s why I decided to consider only the last four games for each team.

How do I do my calculations? I check how many goal attempts are needed for a team to score. This is very simple. I divide the number of goal attempts to scored goals in the last four meetings. Then I estimate how many goal attempts a team will have in this match.

This calculation is done by a formula which calculates the average number of goal attempts created by a team and the average number of goal attempts allowed by the opponent. By the result I make a factor that is applied to the goal attempts created and allowed by both teams in the last four games.

Given the expected number of goal attempts and information for how many of them will be realized as goals I can have an idea of how many goals I expect to be realized in that match. I convert my expectations in odds by adding the 7% margin for the betting house and if I have gaps of more than 10 percent between my predictions and suggested by the bookmaker betting odds I bet.

Sounds pretty simple and for now works with decent success. Of course, this is a betting system that works only in the long term. It can’t be expected that it can be applied to only one match.

More about under/over betting you can see in the video below:

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